SCENARIOS: Tension in China's restive Xinjiang

More than 1,000 people have been injured and 1,434 arrested in unrest between Han Chinese and Muslim Uighurs since Sunday in Urumqi, capital of the energy-rich region which borders Central Asia and Pakistan.

Here are some scenarios at how current tensions may play out:

WILL UNREST SPREAD TO REST OF XINJIANG?

- Demonstrations and even rioting could break out in other parts of the vast region, especially in areas which are heavily populated by minority Muslim Uighurs. Urumqi, by contrast, has a very large Han Chinese population.

Chinese state media have already reported on protests in the old Silk Road city of Kashgar and exile groups say other cities have also been affected, though those reports are hard to verify.

- But after the violence in Urumqi, Chinese security forces will rush in reinforcements to all parts of Xinjiang to try to nip any new protests in the bud, making a repetition of Sunday's riots unlikely though not impossible.


WILL MILITANTS MOUNT TERROR ATTACKS?

- Militants accused by Beijing of using terror to seek an independent state called East Turkestan could mount bombing or shooting attacks.

Xinjiang has been hit by numerous bombings and shootings over the years, including attacks in the region before and during last year's Beijing Olympics, so attacks are possible.

Chinese missions in the Netherlands and Germany have been attacked by unidentified men.

Some analysts and rights groups question the level of organization and threat posed by these groups, saying they are not as fearsome as China makes out.

- Any terror attacks would meet with not only public outrage, which the government may find hard to control, but also an even tighter security clampdown against Uighurs. That would generate yet more Uighur resentment, and so the cycle of enmity, hate and suspicion would start again.

WILL XINJIANG'S ECONOMY DIVE?

- Tourism, especially domestic, will take a hit. Travel agents have already reported a collapse in demand. But the government will probably step in to pump-prime the economy, part of an existing policy to bring wealth to the region partially in the hopes of trying to win over the local people.

- Analysts do not expect China's markets to be affected, unless the unrest engulfs the whole of Xinjiang and gets completely out of control or spreads to the rest of the country. China's stock markets have largely shrugged off the unrest.

WILL CHINA SUBSTANTIALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON XINJIANG?

- Unlikely. The Chinese government, and many ordinary Chinese, already believe they are more than generous to Xinjiang, pumping in billions of dollars for schools, hospitals, roads and farming projects, as well as giving Uighurs privileges not extended to Han Chinese. For instance, there is no enforced family planning.

- Any debate on policy reform in Xinjiang will be kept out of the public eye to avoid the government being seen to be weak and capitulating to the rioters, which would be extremely unpopular with the broader population in the rest of the country.

WILL CHINA GRANT XINJIANG INDEPENDENCE?

- This is almost guaranteed never to happen, at least not while the Communist Party remains in power in Beijing. And even in the unlikely event the Party looses its grip on power, Chinese people, brought up to believe that Xinjiang is an inseparable part of China, will not let it slip away easily.

- Xinjiang is also too strategic a place for China to let go. It borders Central Asia and Pakistan and is rich in natural resources.

- Giving Xinjiang independence would set a dangerous precedent for other restless minorities, including Tibetans and Mongolians. No leader would want that to happen under their watch lest they go down in history as "sinners."